Mu Optics Officially Out of Money

After months of silence following the IMTS 2014 show, Mu Optics has released a lengthy update on IndieGoGo.  Some have speculated that the delay in refunds lately suggested the Mu coffers were nearly empty.  Today, John McGrath confirmed this fact, saying "Regretfully, just as our camera was ready for production, we're now finding it impossible to obtain financing for production...It would only be fair to say that, baring a miracle, that we are shutting down operations."

The update rightly points out that the entrance of the Seek imager has further changed the new consumer IR camera market, with the FLIR 1 being the first one on the scene.  John admits that while competitive with the FLIR 1 (which isn't entirely true in my estimate), the Mu camera cannot compete with the likes of Seek at their price point.  Having received my Seek camera the other month, I can say it is what I hoped the Mu to be at the beginning of the campaign. 

The announcement brings up a big question, if they still need financing to get the Mu camera to production, how far was the $282,000 raised during the campaign supposed to get them?  Clearly, some was for development of the final camera, but it seems clear now that they could not have delivered cameras to the IGG backers with just those funds.  The failure is probably due to not accurately calculate their BOM costs.  Mu has always keep things close to the chest (out of their self-admitted paranoia as I talked about in the earlier post), but they did reveal an interesting figure in their update: cost of manufacturing one Mu unit is $210.  Starting with the 1,905 IGG backers, that would mean production cost just for the campaign fulfillments would be $400,260.  A simple math check shows this is considerably more than $282,000.  We have no idea how much was spent on development of the app, hardware, labor costs, but those efforts likely ate up a large portion of the funds. 

And so here we have another case study of crowd-funded projects that are a great idea but poorly executed.  It further goes to show that the step from working prototype to full production is a considerable undertaking that should not be underestimated.  Making a product work is the first step, but you still have to design it to be producible at a reasonable cost.

Instead of disappearing after the failure of the project (I'm looking at you Steve Tan, aka Kreyos), John has provided his personal contact information for people to contact him. Certainly a respectable thing to do in those circumstances. I'm sure that there are a lot of disappointed and angry supporters who will not get refunds (despite asking) who will take advantage of the opportunity to contact him. But, baring a miracle angel investor, Mu is officially dead.

Ritot Watch: Destined to Fail?

The Ritot Watch campaign (link) successfully ended on September 26th, 2014, raising over $1.4 million ($50k original goal). However, the campaign also raised a lot of red flags which seriously put into question the future success of delivering an actual product.  Yes, there is the issue that the creators are based entirely in Ukraine (and not San Fransisco as stated on the site), and are using aliases (all detailed by Josh Ong here), but there's much more.


Source: indiegogo.com

First reg flag: Indiegogo Flexible funding.  IGG as a platform allows more dubious projects to get through, and the flexible funding option alone is a strike against any campaign.  The creators of the Ritot watch claim they would have refunded all contributions if they had not come close to the $50,000 goal (so why choose the flexible funding in the first place?).

Second red flag: LOTS of photoshopped/rendered visualizations and no working prototype.  It's fairly easy to make a pretty picture of an idea you have for a product, but getting it to prototype phase is another matter.  Before the campaign ended (after 2 extensions), the creators posted an update showing a demo projector displaying the time on a piece of paper (simulating the top of your hand).  While it's good to see they at least have some of the hardware, and some functionality, they still have a long way to go to integrate the hardware into a braclet-sized enclosure.


Source: indiegogo.com



Third red flag:  Aggressive delivery schedule.  The initial schedule has not yet been updated, but as it currently stands, it will be a very busy couple of months.  Design and testing is to be completed in just 2 months from now, completing by the end of November.  The rest of the schedule has a lot of concurrency which might be risky.  Shipments are to begin in January.  The flood of orders may well increase the lead time on the critical components.  Digi-Key is currently showing a factory stock on the DLP3000FQD micro mirror array of just 1,460 (Mouser only has another 24 in stock, though other suppliers may have some too).  Perhaps you think their schedule isn't overly aggressive, but don't forget this is just a team to two guys and they also have to design and produce a charging base (which includes a curved color touch screen and wireless charging) and develop the mobile app.  In my view, that's a lot to ask for from two guys in 5 months.  Throw in stretch goal mission creep and a high volume of orders, and you have a real mess.



Source: indiegogo.com

If all these warning signs still haven't persuaded you, you're in luck.  The Ritot Watch campaign is still accepting contributions!  In that last 24 hours, another 10 contributors have put in their orders for 12 more watches.  However, there are plenty of unhappy contributors already, with many asking for refunds before the campaign officially ended (based on the public comments).  While I don't normally root for projects to fail (at least not after they've been funded), I'm very skeptical of the success of the Ritot Watch. This project is certainly one to watch over the next few months, whether it succeeds or fails.






 

Mu Optics to Demo Hardware at Upcoming Trade Show (Allegedly)

On Monday, after months of silence, Mu Optics announced on their IndieGoGo page that their thermal camera will be shown at a week-long public event starting September 8th, 2014. No further details were provided, an odd thing for an event that is supposed to generate publicity. (Read more about the project here)

Wanting to find out more information about this 'public showing', I decided to call the CEO of Mu Optics, John McGrath. After explaining I was not part of the press, but a former supporter writing a story about their project, I was surprised to find that he kept talking to me.  We spoke for roughly ten minutes, with my questions focused mainly on the upcoming event, rather than technical challenges or development progress.  I was not confident I would get any meaningful answers on the technical side, plus I wanted to keep it short and relevant to the latest update.

John revealed that the team has been invited to participate in an upcoming trade show by a highly respected company. He would not, however, reveal the name of this company.  When asked if the event was in fact the International Manufacturing Technology Show (imts.com), he declined to confirm that as well. Since there are no other large technical shows scheduled for September 8-13 in the Chicago area, it's a safe bet this is the event in question. The participation with another company could explain why Mu Optics is not listed at an exhibitor for the event.  For critics, it could also be seen as more smoke and mirrors.

The unnamed company is planning on using the Mu Thermal Camera as part of their "tool-set".  There was no elaboration on the who the target market is for this "tool-set" or how the thermal camera fit in with the current offerings. Whoever this company is, they likely fall under the Inspection/Vision Systems sector of the show.  John, predictably, claimed he was unable to reveal more information at this time.

What to expect

When asked what people could expect to see from Mu, John shared that there will be six thermal cameras on display in the booth.  They anticipate getting feedback about the camera's general purpose and practical uses for the public and "always welcome feedback and suggestions."  The fact that six working cameras exist (if in fact they do), is quite a revelation in and of itself. Knowing their habit of not releasing any photos (or meaningful photos) as evidence of progress, I pressed John about what kind of updates backer could expect after the show.  He promised that photos of the event with sample thermal photos would be published online, during or after the event. This, of course, remains to be seen, but I hope to follow up with John at some point during the show.  I encourage anyone in the Chicago area to visit the show if you have time (note there is a $50 registration fee) and see what you can find.

Is there an app for that?

When asked about the status of Android and iOS apps for the camera, specifically if they have submitted either for approval to iTunes or the Play Store, he declined to give any answer. However, he did assure me that the app works on all iPhones, with no mention of current Android capability.  The obvious answer then is, no, they are not close to releasing the app.  Granted an app without the necessary hardware is fairly useless, but its absence adds to the suspicions of supporters and critics.

The best possible product

On the subject of delays, it was explained that they have been caused by a "multitude of reasons", but primarily due to the team wanting to get the best possible product out to market. This is the typical justification when any project is late, or extremely late.  I decided to leave it at that, since followup questions would only result in more non-answers.  The technical challenges of the design or shortcomings of the team itself were not mentioned. Without prompting, John assured me that they were not "a scam" and are "going to be delivering cameras."  Sadly, there is little proof that either is true, apart from a history of honoring refund requests.

"Only the paranoid survive"

At the end of our conversation, John shared with me his philosophy on operating this start-up.  He pointed out they there are creating a company, and want to ensure the future success of this company.  Their approach, as has been demonstrated through the IndieGoGo campaign, is to keep quite and release as little information as possible. He tells me "Only the paranoid survive."  John felt that he already had shared too much with me, despite not sharing very much at all.  In his mind, it all comes down to competition.  "I don't know of any other companies that release their strategic plans, detailed schedules, and technical progress for their competitors to see."  This concern appears to outweigh the fact that their crowd-funding campaign comes with the responsibility to update backers and deliver on their promises.  It's fair to say that the concept of publicity and marketing is lost on the Mu team. There is a very real, and admitted, paranoia about competitors gleaning important information from any sort of press release or update.  Speaking of competitors, John is eager to go "nose-to-nose with our competitors" [read, the FLIR 1].  He's seen the reviews and is confident the Mu Thermal Camera will hold its own.

That is, if it's ever released.